Non-food inflation in Egypt down to 4% in October 2021, lowest since December 2012
The annual inflation of non-food products in Egypt fell to 4% in October 2021 from 4.9% in September 2021, the lowest level since December 2012. This decrease is mainly due to a lower price increase of the group education compared to the previous year.
At the same time, annual food inflation rose for the sixth consecutive month to reach 11.6% in October 2021 – the highest level since May 2019 – from 10.6% in September 2021, reflecting a larger annual contribution high staple food.
In addition, annual urban inflation fell to 6.3% in October 2021 against 6.6% in September 2021. This monthly urban inflation recorded 1.5% in October 2021 against 1.8% in October 2020.
The monthly decline in urban inflation in October 2021 was mainly driven by non-food items. The increase in the prices of non-food items reflected the seasonal increase in education and education-related prices, which was reflected in regulated items, services and retail items. In addition, the Fuel Indexing Committee increased the prices of certain petroleum products at its last meeting in October 2021.
In addition, the prices of basic food items have increased, particularly poultry, eggs and red meat, largely reflecting the impact of higher international food inflation.
On the other hand, the prices of volatile food products have fallen, broadly in line with their seasonal trend and the resulting increase in their supply, as well as due to the fall in tomato prices after their increase in the past. during the previous month as planned.
On an annual basis, the decline in headline inflation in October 2021 was due to the lower annual contribution from non-food products, which was partially offset by a higher annual contribution from food.
Driven by the higher annual contribution of basic foodstuffs, annual core inflation increased in October 2021 to 5.2% from 4.8% in September 2021. This is because inflation Underlying monthly was 2.1% in October 2021, compared to 1.7% in October 2020.
Nationally, annual inflation and annual rural inflation fell to 7.3% and 8.4% in October 2021, from 8% and 9.5% in September 2021, respectively.
The prices of fresh fruits and vegetables fell by 7.3% and 3.2% respectively. Together, fresh vegetables and fresh fruit contributed -0.27% to monthly headline inflation.
Poultry prices rose for the second consecutive month by 8.4%, contributing 0.32% to monthly headline inflation. Egg prices rose 10% for the fifth consecutive month, contributing 0.11% to monthly headline inflation. Red meat prices rose 1.6%, contributing 0.06% to monthly headline inflation. Fish and seafood prices rose 1.3%, contributing 0.03% to monthly headline inflation.
The prices of other basic foodstuffs, including dairy products, sugar, rice, oils and fats, increased to contribute 0.08% to monthly headline inflation.
The prices of regulated articles rose 1.3%, contributing 0.32% to monthly headline inflation. This is mainly due to higher seasonal tuition fees at public schools, public hospitals and higher prices for certain fuel products, as announced by the Fuels Indexing Committee at its last meeting in October 2021.
Prices for services rose 2.0%, contributing 0.70% to monthly headline inflation. This was mainly due to the higher tuition fees of private schools and private lessons.
Prices for retail items rose 1.2%, contributing 0.16% to monthly headline inflation. This was mainly due to the higher prices for books as well as clothing; especially school uniforms.
Monthly core inflation has been affected by the price changes of the aforementioned elements of the underlying CPI. Services contributed 1% to monthly core inflation. Basic foodstuffs contributed 0.85% to monthly core inflation. Additionally, retail items contributed 0.23% to monthly core inflation.