Categorized Directory

Main Menu

  • Home
  • Search directory
  • Web crawlers
  • Collect data
  • Indexation
  • Bankroll

Categorized Directory

Header Banner

Categorized Directory

  • Home
  • Search directory
  • Web crawlers
  • Collect data
  • Indexation
  • Bankroll
Collect data
Home›Collect data›Data gaps make next wave of Omicron impossible to predict, BC experts say

Data gaps make next wave of Omicron impossible to predict, BC experts say

By Ed Robertson
April 7, 2022
0
0

Breadcrumb Links

  1. News
  2. Local News

Independent scientists say BC needs to collect more information and make it public

Dr. Jens von Bergmann. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /PNG

Content of the article

A new Omicron wave is building, but it’s impossible to predict its severity due to a lack of data collected by the province, according to a report from British Columbia’s independent COVID-19 modeling group.

Advertisement 2

This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

On Tuesday, Dr. Bonnie Henry, BC’s provincial health officer, said the province has strong surveillance systems that allow policymakers to see trends and make decisions about how to respond to the pandemic. .

Henry said she expects to see an uptick in cases as restrictions are lifted, but doesn’t think that will mean a big jump in hospitalizations based on BC Center for Disease Control modeling. .

“What this predicts is that if we do the things we do, if nothing changes, then we’re going to see a much slower, smaller increase (in hospitalizations) over time over the next two months. “, Henry mentioned.

But the report released Wednesday by the independent modeling group – which includes experts in epidemiology, mathematics and data analysis from several BC universities and the private sector – indicates that hospitalizations could remain at current levels or could increase to over 1,000 at the peak of the first Omicron wave in late January.

Advertisement 3

This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

The province reported 329 people hospitalized Wednesday with COVID-19, a drop of two after several days of small increases.

Jens von Bergmann, a data scientist and member of the independent group, said he was not confident about the predictions of his group’s most recent report, as it relied on “poor data from Colombia. British”.

“We’re not sure about the level of immunity in the population and the contact rates and the impact that has on transmissions and hospitalizations is hard to say.”

Von Bergmann said the province could do more to improve its monitoring systems, which would help modelers make more reliable predictions and allow people to make more informed choices.

British Columbia is no longer testing suspected COVID cases unless someone is at risk of serious illness, and it recently dropped plans to collect data from the vast majority who use rapid tests. .

Advertisement 4

This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

“It could have evolved into something similar to Flu Watch, which is a more informal monitoring system but works relatively well for monitoring our flu season,” von Bergmann said. “That would give you an idea of ​​the population-level data on the rate of spread and that would be helpful and it’s not hard to do.”

British Columbia’s main monitoring system relies on the number of hospitalizations, but von Bergmann said his group would prefer the province to report the number of daily admissions.

He said the total number of people in hospital or in intensive care changes regularly and is a mix of people admitted a long time ago and people recently admitted.

“It’s hard to say whether admissions are increasing or not,” he said.

After the province halted contact tracing last year, it turned to sewage surveillance as a benchmark for measuring the rate of community transmission.

Advertisement 5

This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

On Tuesday, Henry said that was how an uptick in infections had been detected over the past week.

“With wastewater analyses, we only do it once a week. It can only be done at this frequency. It doesn’t change much over a one-day or 24-hour period.

But von Bergmann said sewage tests can produce very different results from day to day. He said results differ depending on whether it rains or if a large industrial plant discharges sewage all at once, but the province does not report water flows. He added that Omicron is known to produce less virus in the stool, but those things aren’t measured in the BC data, although they could be.

“Sewage data is difficult to interpret because a lot is going on in a sewer line,” he said.

Advertising 6

This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

Henry reported that the BA. Omicron strain 2 accounts for almost 75% of all infections and this has been determined by genome sequencing. But von Bergmann said there was a delay in reporting that data and that could skew the results.

“If you have the BA Omicron. 2 growing strain but you have BA. 1 declining, then it might look like it’s flat.

Henry insists that British Columbians can trust published information.

“What we see in terms of risk doesn’t change every day,” she said. “We have to think about it over a longer period. What is my risk this week? What things do I feel comfortable doing next week? »

However, von Bergmann believes people remain vulnerable.

“People who were really trying to avoid getting COVID have a lot fewer tools to avoid getting the virus because they have a lot less information and wearing a mask is no longer necessary,” he said. declared. “People will act on the information given to them. There should be more information, given more than once a week.


More news, fewer ads, faster loading times: Get unlimited, lightweight access to the Vancouver Sun, The Province, National Post and 13 other Canadian news sites for just $14/month or $140/year. Subscribe now through The Vancouver Sun or The Province.

Share this article on your social network

Advertisement 1

This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Vancouver Sun news logo

Sign up to receive daily news from the Vancouver Sun, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.

By clicking the subscribe button, you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300

Thank you for your registration!

A welcome email is on its way. If you don’t see it, please check your spam folder.

The next issue of Vancouver Sun Headline News will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered a problem during your registration. Try Again

comments

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively yet civil discussion forum and encourages all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments can take up to an hour to be moderated before appearing on the site. We ask that you keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications. You will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, if there is an update to a comment thread you follow, or if a user follows you comments. See our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

Related posts:

  1. Biden administration will not seek to join Open Skies treaty after 2020 release
  2. Emory creates a new institute for personalized medicine in brain health | Emory University
  3. New Barber Shop Instills Bulldog Name and Spirit: Olmsted Dates and Data
  4. CICSE asks schools to submit average grades for students in class 11, internal exam – The New Indian Express

Categories

  • Bankroll
  • Collect data
  • Indexation
  • Search directory
  • Web crawlers

Recent Posts

  • Live-Action TV Spider-Mans Who Didn’t Appear in No Way Home
  • Bennet bill would create federal definition of school shooting, direct incident data collection
  • The 10 Most In-Demand Entry-Level Remote Jobs Landing Right Now
  • Face-Scanner Clearview accepts the limits of the legal settlement | Economic news
  • Ex-minister embroiled in Hellenic row over staff cuts

Archives

  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions